The Three Estimates Dr. Hossam Youssef

Management - Intelligence - Management Science - Real Estate

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Strategic planning methods and methodologies vary depending on the project being planned and the timeframe adopted, based on the key inputs for implementation, It is no secret that statistical methods are crucial for estimating the expected time to complete project activities—a process known as the «three-point estimation» method, which is based on the statistical distribution of the beta coefficient to estimate the expected time. These are: «Shortest or Optimistic Time,» which refers to the minimum time required to complete the activity under favorable conditions and constraints, with no obstacles or impediments preventing implementation; «Longest or Pessimistic Time,» which is the time required under adverse conditions and in the presence of unexpected constraints and obstacles; therefore, this estimate is described as pessimistic; Finally, in this classification, the time required to complete the project is calculated using the «most likely time,» which is the most realistic estimate of the time needed under normal circumstances and constraints, assuming that all elements and variables remain constant and the plan proceeds as planned.

The importance of this concept regarding the expected time for project completion lies in the approval of plans, the ability to execute projects, and the avoidance of penalty clauses in construction contracts and others that arise due to delays in delivery.

In accordance with the previous concept, planning and task allocation are also divided into three categories, one of which is planning using the hybrid method, which focuses on involving all managers of the company’s and project’s departments and divisions, forming a single work team. The main and sub-plans are discussed by the team and then finalized after the necessary amendments are made.

There is a second approach in which planning tasks are assigned to the managers and department heads who oversee the project, provided that senior management supplies them with the necessary resources when the project is launched; this is called bottom-up planning.

In the top-down planning approach, senior management in the organization prepares and establishes a comprehensive plan for the company’s project or projects, and requests that lower levels—such as the company’s departments and divisions—develop subsidiary plans that complement the overall plan, and submit any proposed modifications, whether additions or deletions, as they deem appropriate.

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